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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to NE 36, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. Penalty on PIT-98-V.Williams, Illegal Formation, declined. PENALTY on NE-53-E.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 36.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model