Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 67

New England Patriots 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 6-R.Allen punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback. PENALTY on NE-53-E.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.30 EP
51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model