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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 16-T.Murphy to NE 22 for 16 yards (24-B.Fletcher).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.96 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP