4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 43

New England Patriots 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to PIT 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model