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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 42 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to TB 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-54-A.Williamson.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.18 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model