Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 89

Tennessee Titans 42 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to TB 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.32 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 89, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model