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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 3-J.Winston scrambles right end to TEN 21 for 5 yards (55-Z.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.52 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model