Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 65

Chicago Bears 14 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to ARI 20, Center-43-T.Gafford. 14-J.Nelson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-35-J.Rodgers at ARI 22. 35-J.Rodgers to ARI 22 for no gain (14-J.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.43 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model