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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 46

Chicago Bears 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-43-T.Gafford, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model