4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 33

Chicago Bears 20 – Arizona Cardinals 42

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.29 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model