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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 42 – Chicago Bears 23

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 42 yards to CHI 36, Center-82-M.Leach. 80-M.Mariani to ARI 44 for 20 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model