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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 42 – Chicago Bears 23

What Actually Happened

(10:12) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to CHI 4, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.56 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model