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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to PHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model