Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 83

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

(9:22) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-58-J.Hicks.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.38 EP
60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model