Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to DAL 21, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 28 for 7 yards (14-R.Cooper). Penalty on DAL-57-D.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DAL-27-J.Wilcox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model