Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 13

(12:21) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model