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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 78

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 6-C.Jones punts 60 yards to PHI 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.60 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 35, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP