4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 81-J.Matthews for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 6, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model