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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 23, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model