Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(:31) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 24 for 1 yard (47-T.Burton). PHI-47-T.Burton was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on DAL-39-B.Carr, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.58 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model