4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to NE 42, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.86 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model