Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 78

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to BUF 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at NE 46 for 30 yards (6-R.Allen). Return credited to BUF 38 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-58-Ra.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.51 EP
56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model