Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 19 at the 99

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to NE 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to BUF 27 for 28 yards (26-A.Dixon). Penalty on BUF-20-C.Graham, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. PENALTY on BUF-27-D.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 27.

The Three Options

GO -3.97 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.17 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 99, worth -6.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model