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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 95

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to NYJ 38, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.46 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 95, worth -5.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 53, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model