4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 28

New York Jets 17 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.03 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model