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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to NYJ 8, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model