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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP