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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 2-J.Lambo 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.29 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model