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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP