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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.73 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model