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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 3

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 29

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Shotgun) 22-M.Davis up the middle to PIT 2 for 1 yard (50-R.Shazier; 93-C.Thomas). Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +4.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.16 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model