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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 29

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 7-C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short right to 49-B.Miller (94-L.Timmons). San Francisco challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1 at 01:51.)

The Three Options

GO +4.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model