4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 94

Pittsburgh Steelers 29 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 62 yards to SF 32, Center-60-G.Warren. 18-D.White to SF 36 for 4 yards (20-W.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.15 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 52, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model