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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 29

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 81-A.Boldin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP