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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 83

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to CHI 44, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-28-M.Burley. PENALTY on CHI-25-K.Carey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.42 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 83, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 41, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model