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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 52

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to SEA 20, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -1.50 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model