Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 86

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(13:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to SEA 34, Center-43-T.Gafford. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 44 for 10 yards (43-T.Gafford).

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 86, worth -5.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model