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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 27

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 24-M.Lynch pushed ob at CHI 18 for 9 yards (24-A.Ball).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.10 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model