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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:02) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP