Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 66

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 13

(13:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to SEA 14, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model