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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to CHI 4, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-28-M.Burley.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.29 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP