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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 23

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-43-T.Gafford, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.39 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP