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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-J.Graham to CHI 37 for 6 yards (92-P.McPhee) [99-L.Houston].

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.84 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model