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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 4-S.Hauschka 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP