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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 59

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to SEA 17, Center-43-T.Gafford. 25-R.Sherman to CHI 19 for 64 yards (57-L.Barrow).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.65 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model