4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 73

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SEA 27, Center-43-T.Gafford. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for -1 yards (11-J.Bellamy).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model