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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 53

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to CHI 8, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.80 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 53, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP