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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:09) (Punt formation) 41-A.Levine right end to BAL 29 for 2 yards (30-C.Peerman). FUMBLES (30-C.Peerman), and recovers at BAL 30. 41-A.Levine to BAL 30 for no gain (30-C.Peerman). fake punt rushed by #41 Levine

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model