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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-B.Tate to CIN 10 for 3 yards (12-D.Waller). PENALTY on BAL-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP