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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(10:06) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BAL 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-M.Campanaro to BAL 37 for 14 yards (26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.12 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model